This blog is based on the research paper presented in IEEE by one of the German scientist few year back on the topic "Why it is difficult to find a girl friend".Though the author proved his point with various scientific terms which i had a tough time to understand.Because I am not at all good in understanding the complex integral calculus or jumbled organic Chemistry...rather than writing a complex , organized bugs free codes for my software application .. Thanks to MSDN and Google .. :) .
Informal and anecdotal evidence from the scientific community has long pointed to the difficulty in securing decent,long-term female companionship. To date, however there will be not many who have thought seriously and done any study on the topic.AS,I myself fall under the category of "No Girl Friend" thought of investigating "why it is impossible to find a Girl Friend" and in the due course i came up with a proof using simple statistical calculus..Since I am working on various statistical and forecasting model projects, that gave me the valuable inputs to formulate and strongly back my proof with. I thought of sharing my investigation using this blog .. So have fun while reading.....!!
Why don’t I have a girlfriend?This is a question that practically every male has asked himself at one point or another in his life. Unfortunately, there is rarely a hard and fast answer to the query. Many men try to reason their way through a series of ridiculous explanations, each more self-deprecating than the last: “Is it because I’m too shy, and not aggressive enough? Is it my opening lines? Am I a boring person? Am I too fat or too thin? Or am I simply ugly and completely unattractive to women?” When all other plausible explanations have been discounted, most end up with the conclusion that “there must be Something Wrong with me”.
Not the author, though. I, for one, refuse to spend my life brooding over my lack of luck with women. While I’ll be the first to admit that my chances of ever entering into a meaningful relationship with someone special are practically non-existent, and I must say that it has nothing to do with any inherent problem with me. Instead, I firmly believe that the situation can be readily explained using nothing more than some elementary and statistical calculus.
Before,anyone suspect that my standards for women are too high, let me allay those fears by enumerating in advance my three criteria for the match. First, the potential girlfriend must be approximately my age— say 23 plus or minus two or three years. Second, the girl must be beautiful. Third, she must also be reasonably intelligent—she doesn’t have to be Mensa material,but the ability to carry on a witty, insightful argument would be nice. So there are—three simple demands, which I’m sure everyone will agree.
I shall endeavor to make this proof as rigorous as the available data from various sources permits.And I should note, too, that there will be no statistical trickery involved here. I have cited all my sources and provided all relevant calculations in case anyone wishes to conduct their own independent review.
Let’s now take a look at the figures.
Number of people on EARTH : 6,72,13,56,000 (According to U.S. Census Bureau)
We start with the largest demographic in which I am interested-namely, the population of this planet.
Who are FEMALE : 3,34,98,52,000
I have thought that, given the title above this criteria goes without saying. In case anyone missed it, though, I am looking for exclusively female companionship. Accordingly, roughly half of the Earth’s population must be discounted. Sorry, guys.
In India : 49,57,38,169 (According to 2001 Census)
I further restrict the geographical area of interest to the country i lived in.That is not to say I’m against the idea of inter-territory romance,I just don’t assess the prospect of finding myself a beautiful Italian girl or a babe from USA ,UK ,Russia or dazzling beauty from some European countries as statistically significant.
Inside my Work Terrain : 31,35,90,791
Being a software professional,I will most likely spend nearly my entire life living and working in following states of india AP,Bihar,Bengal,Delhi,Haryana,Karnatka,Maharastra,UP. So it is these types of regions that the numbers have been narrowed.
In urban cities : 1,25,43,631My reasons for doing so are not motivated out of contempt for those who are staying in villages or economically disadvantaged,but rather by simple probability.In fact my chances of meeting the girls staying in the rural area of these states is either in person or on the Internet, are understandably low.Still 60% of the population in these sates are living in rural areas so I left with merely 40% of population.
Currently aged 21 to 25 : 1,66,91,400
Being neither a pedophile nor a geriatrophile, I would like to restrict my search for love to those whose age is approximately equal to my own. This is where things get a bit tricky, for two reasons: First, the census data is nearly 7 years old, and second, the “population by age” tables in census data are not separated into individual ages but are instead quantized into “14–16” (of whom there are 1,27,44000) and “16–18” (population 1,25,46000).Women aged 14 to 16 in 2001 will be aged 21 to 23 in 2008 and aged 16 to 18 in 2001 will be aged 23 to 25,in this group I’m interested.
Now assuming “14–16” girls’ ages are uniformly distributed, we have
(1,27,44000 * 23-21+1)/ (16-14+1) = 8496000
Similarly, of 2001’s “16–18” category, there are now
(1,25,46000 * 25-23+1)/ (18-16+1) = 8364000
The sum 1,68,60,000 represents the total number of females within my chosen age limit.
The sum 1,68,60,000 represents the total number of females within my chosen age limit.
Unfortunately, some of the girls have died since the census was taken. The death rate in india is 6.4 per 1000 population, so roughly considering 1%, thus the true number of so-far eligible bachelorettes is 1,66,91,400.
Who are Beautiful and Intelligent : 3,78,894
Personal attraction, both physically and personality-wise, is an important instigator of any relationship. Of course, beauty is a purely subjective trait whose interpretation may vary from person to person.It is not necessary for me to define beauty here except to state that for any given beholder, it will probably be normally distributed amongst the population.Without going into the specifics,precisely I will say that for a girl to be considered really beautiful to me, she should fall at least two standard deviations above the norm.Considering same with the intelligence,I found around 2.27% of female who can be considered as beautiful and intelligent.
Not already committed : 1,89,447
I could find no hard statistics on the number of above-noted girls who are already married, engaged, or otherwise committed to a significant other, but informal observation and anecdotal evidence leads me to believe that the proportion is somewhere around 50%. For reasons of morality (and perhaps too self-preservation),I’m not about to start relation with girls who have husband and boyfriend. Accordingly, that portion of the female population must also be considered off-limits.
Also might like me: 30,027
Naturally, finding a suitable girl who I really like is no guarantee that she’ll like me back. Assuming, as previously mentioned, that personal attractiveness is normally distributed,there is a mere 50% chance that any given female will consider me even marginally attractive. In practice, however, people are unlikely to consider pursuing a relationship with someone whose looks and personality just barely suffice. Let’s make the rather conservative assumption, that a girl would choose someone if and only if they were at least one standard deviation above her idea of average.In that case, my calculation reveals only 15.8655% of females would consider someone with my physical characteristics and personality acceptable as a potential romantic partner.
Conclusion :
It is here, at a pool of 30,027 acceptable females,that I end with my statistical analysis. At first glance, a datable population of 30,027 may not seem like such a low number, but considerthis: AS I can not start any relationship without meeting the girl once. Assuming I have to meet with a new girl about my age , I would have to date for 4289 weeks before I found one of the 30,027. That’s very nearly 82 years. As a North Indian male born in the early 1980s, my life expectancy is probably little more than 70 years, so I can safely say that I will be dead before I find the proverbial girl of my dreams. Come to think of it, she’ll probably be dead too.
